Commodity prices forecast to rise 23% in 2026 as food risks mount
The World Bank projects a 32% increase in energy prices and warns that overlapping conflict and weather risks could trigger a food crisis.
Global commodity prices could climb 23% by the end of 2026, the World Bank warned, as wars and extreme weather push up energy and food costs. Its Commodity Markets Outlook projects a 32% rise in energy prices in 2026, followed by moderation in 2027.
The energy outlook assumes no escalation of the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. The bank forecasts food price increases of 10% in 2026 and 7% in 2027, citing disrupted grain supplies, an extreme El Niño and elevated fuel and fertiliser costs.
The bank said a combination of stronger El Niño effects, more attacks on grain shipments in the Black Sea and further energy price increases linked to the Iran war could trigger a food crisis. Under that adverse scenario, Brent could average US$105 a barrel in 2027, while food commodity prices could exceed the baseline forecast by 12%.
The report projects a 5.2% contraction in global oil supply in 2026 because of the wars. It also forecasts oil consumption falling by 2.5%, limiting the projected increase in oil prices.
The World Bank has provided emergency assistance worth US$8.7 billion (RM35.5 billion) to vulnerable countries since the Iran war began. Its deputy chief economist, Ayhan Kose, called for priority to be given to protecting the poorest and supporting low-income countries facing heavy debt burdens.
