Palm oil prices forecast at RM4,500 to RM5,000 per tonne until April 2027
Dorab Mistry expects a low-yield production phase from February and forecasts a 2.7 million tonne decline in palm oil output in 2027.
Malaysian palm oil could trade between RM4,500 and RM5,000 per tonne until April 2027, analyst Dorab Mistry said on Nov 13, as he forecast that drought linked to El Niño would curb production from February.
Mistry, director of Indian consumer goods company Godrej International, said the current high-yield phase could continue until January despite the drought. He expects production to move directly into a low-yield phase in February and remain there until November, supporting prices during the second and third quarters of 2027.
His forecast puts the decline in overall palm oil output at 2.7 million tonnes for 2027. He said Indonesia could face a greater impact because its drought was more severe, although younger palms there might limit the damage.
The benchmark contract stood at RM4,447 at the Nov 13 midday break, following a steep fall since late October amid growing Malaysian inventories. It had climbed as much as 24% to RM5,018 per tonne in late August, before its gain for the year narrowed to around 9%.
Mistry said traders had anticipated the drought's impact too early and had been excessively bullish, making the earlier price rise premature.
