Malaysian palm oil inventories estimated at record 3.45 million tonnes
A Bloomberg survey points to higher September output and weaker exports. Official supply and demand figures are due on Oct 12.
Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles are estimated to have risen about 22% in September to 3.45 million tonnes, potentially setting a record, according to a Bloomberg survey. The median estimate from ten plantation executives, traders and analysts would put inventories above the December 2018 record of 3.22 million tonnes.
The survey estimated production at 2.11 million tonnes, up 16% and the highest September output on record. Exports were estimated to have dropped around 12% to 1.13 million tonnes, their lowest level in four months. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board is scheduled to publish its monthly figures on Oct 12.
Jacquelyn Yow, regional head of plantation research at CGS International, said unexpectedly strong production had lifted inventories. She expects prices to remain under pressure at RM4,300 to RM4,500 a tonne.
Aditya Jeripotula, head of South Asia at DNext Intelligence SA, attributed Malaysia’s recent loss of export share to a wide price premium over Indonesian supplies. He said near-record edible oil inventories in major importing markets had also weakened demand.
Jeripotula expects stocks to reach their peak in October, then decline towards year-end as output slows and festive buying supports exports. However, he expects reserves to remain close to record levels through the first half of 2027.
In its Oct 1 report, the US Department of Agriculture increased its production forecast for the 2025-26 year to 20.2 million tonnes, citing improvements in plantation management and labour availability.
