IEA chief sees no return to pre-war energy conditions in 2027
Fatih Birol raised concerns about winter fuel demand and pressure on European gas markets, while pointing to renewed nuclear construction.
International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Fatih Birol does not expect energy markets to recover their pre-Iran war conditions in 2027. Addressing the Singapore International Energy Week conference on Oct 26, he called on governments and companies to make energy security their top priority.
The war began in late February, disrupting energy flows globally and driving up crude and refined fuel prices. It tightened supplies despite earlier expectations of a market surplus this year.
Following further Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, Brent crude futures reached US$117 a barrel, a peak not seen for nearly six months. The contract subsequently retreated but remained about 59% above the level before the war.
At a press conference, Birol declined to predict oil prices. He said crude approaching US$120 a barrel was having a substantial effect on trade deficits across many countries, even though some European economies might be able to afford that level.
Birol also highlighted concern over winter demand for refined fuels, particularly diesel used for heating in parts of the West, as several refineries undergo maintenance. He expects significant pressure on European gas markets as countries reduce Russian imports while Qatar and the Emirates face war-related limits on their gas exports.
He expects the crisis to drive a nuclear-sector revival. Citing a recent IEA survey, Birol said nuclear plants totalling 90 gigawatts were being built, the highest level in four decades.
