Ringgit forecast at 3.98 against US dollar for third quarter of 2027

MUFG Bank projects a US dollar exchange rate of 4.03 for the ringgit by end-2026, followed by 3.98 in the third quarter of 2027. Its outlook places the Malaysian currency ahead of the other Asian currencies it covers.

The ringgit traded at about 4.09 against the US dollar on Oct 5 morning. For the final quarter of 2026, MUFG expects electronics exports to support its performance, although rising oil prices remain a source of pressure.

The bank said Malaysia’s surplus in electronics trade provides a buffer against expensive energy. It also linked demand for Malaysian electrical and electronics exports to increased US expenditure on computers and related equipment.

Investment in information and communications technology, including cloud computing and data centres, was another supporting factor cited by MUFG. Approvals for services investment climbed more than 20% year-on-year during the first half of 2026, largely reflecting ICT-related investments.

With inflation contained, MUFG expects the overnight policy rate to stay at 2.75% under Bank Negara Malaysia until the third quarter of 2027. The bank also noted second-quarter gross domestic product growth of 6% year-on-year, compared with a pre-pandemic average of 4.9%.

MUFG warned that higher fuel-subsidy costs and global bond yields could contribute to near-term volatility. Over the medium term, however, it expects support from Malaysia’s external position, better capital flows and valuations.